livingdeb (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
livingdeb) wrote2025-10-04 04:35 pm
livingdeb) wrote2025-10-04 04:35 pm
Entry tags:
Government Shutdown
Yet another shutdown.
What's supposed to happen?
The federal government's fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. The previous fall, agencies submit their budget requests to Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The President then provides a budget by the first Monday in February. Then the President, OMB, and agency officials explain and justify their requests to Congress.
The House and Senate each have subcommittees for each of 12 different parts of the budget. Matching budgets for each must pass both chambers and be signed by the President to take effect. (Some or all might be combined into minibus or omnibus appropriations bills.) I can't figure out the deadline--early summer?--but that deadline is regularly missed and they mostly just pretend that October 1 is the real deadline, as if no one needs any prep time in knowing what their budgets are about to be.
If the fiscal year is about to begin and they still haven't passed some or any of those 12 budgets, then to prevent a government shutdown (or partial shutdown), Congress may pass a continuing resolution (CR) to extend funding (usually at the same rates as the previous budget) and give them a new deadline.
What happened this time?
First let's look at what happened last time. Last year's budget was also not ready on time. Continuing resolutions were passed in September, December, and March. Finally the budget was passed in July, using the budget reconciliation process, which meant only a simple majority was required to pass rather than the usual 60% majority. That was last year's budget. No Democrats voted for it.
And now let's look at that March continuing resolution. Some Democrats did vote for that, but the reasons they did that might not apply this time.
1) A shutdown hurts many Americans, especially those who depend on government the most. Many government workers will be expected to work without pay. Federal court cases would be delayed. That's still true.
But this time the continuing resolution is extending a different budget, one that also inflicts harm such as by cutting safety nets (Medicaid being a big one, expected to affect recipients, but also lead to small hospitals closing down, especially in rural areas).
2) DOGE under Elon Musk was slashing funding and programs; they feared that a shutdown would empower them to destroy government services even more quickly by deeming whole swaths of the government nonessential and by furloughing staff. This is still true--Trump is threatening this out loud this time.
Yet last time Trump continued to issue illegal executive orders. DOGE continued slashing funding and programs until slowed by court orders, Elon Musk moving on, and other changes. The White House continued to impound funds. And the political purges increased.
3) They worried that a shutdown would distract from Trump’s failures. He had caused chaos in the markets and damaged the economy, but that would take second place to the crisis of a paralyzed government.
This time most people know that his tariffs are fueling inflation and complicating corporate planning. Most also know the current budget hits the poor the hardest to transfer wealth to the already wealthy.
4) Trump's illegal actions were being stopped in the courts back in March, but a shutdown could cause the courts to close. (Though, unlike executive branch agencies, federal courts can operate on their reserves or carryover funds, including what they obtain from court filing fees, for some weeks. Courts around the country could decide to prioritize cases involving constitutional questions or challenges to the federal government's actions.)
Federal courts are still mostly stopping illegal actions, but it's not clear whether the Supreme Court will.
So what's happening this time?
A continuing resolution doesn't have to continue the current budget just as it is (called a "clean" bill).
The Republican version adds funding for enhanced security for federal officials across all three branches (post Charlie Kirk's murder) and extends several expiring health and veterans programs.
The Democrat version extends ACA/Obamacare subsidies, reverses Medicaid and public broadcasting funding cuts from the last budget, and adds "guard rails" against the president unilaterally defunding programs that Congress has already passed.
It sure seems like there's room for negotiation here, since many Republicans also want to extend ACA subsidies. I suspect they could just literally add that to their own bill and it would pass. Unfortunately, many Republicans see 'negotiating' as a weakness.
Whose fault is it?
It takes two to tango and it takes two to shut down the government. So both parties are at fault. Either party could end the shutdown by completely knuckling under to the demands of the other party.
I've heard Republicans saying that now is not the time for hammering out budget details (and Democrats have said the same in the past). Yet, using the budget reconciliation process to pass a budget means you don't have to consider Democrats in hammering out those details, so this might be their only time to have a say.
How long?
Traditionally, preventing and ending government shutdowns has been a priority. They don't last long. The furloughed and unpaid federal workers eventually get their back pay. And then it takes a lot of time and energy to catch up on all the stuff that didn't get done during the shutdown.
But many are saying this shutdown is different:
1) Trump is threatening to fire people instead of just furloughing them. And he's specifically saying he wants to target Democrats, projects in their cities, and programs that Democrats like, as if Democrats are not also his constituents.
2) Some say neither side wants to negotiate this time. Both want to convince their constituents that it's the other party's fault. The Republicans are just being reasonable, and the Democrats are just fighting for their constituents.
(The administration has altered the out-of-office email messages of furloughed workers to partisan messages on why their office was closed. And when the workers notice and change their messages, the messages get changed back. Yes, this is illegal (see Hatch Act).)
3) It's hard for Democrats to agree to a promise to include something in the future when the Republicans can shut them out from negotiations and when president keeps defunding things he doesn't like.
Yet even though many are saying this time is different, I've heard no one saying the government might stay shut down a crazy long time this time. Like until the midterms. The closest I've found is The Street saying it's possible it will stay shut down until the budget is ready for a vote in November. Ha, next month? So optimistic! I hope they're right. Because our government doesn't feel quite authoritarian enough yet that shutting it down like this indefinitely feels right to me.
Disclaimer: If I ever just skipped all my deadlines, opposed the basic principles that my employer stood for, and saw the use of my most important tools as a weakness, how many seconds would it take for them to fire me? Well, maybe I'd be okay if I also focused on pleasing my bully of a boss rather than my clients.
What's supposed to happen?
The federal government's fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. The previous fall, agencies submit their budget requests to Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The President then provides a budget by the first Monday in February. Then the President, OMB, and agency officials explain and justify their requests to Congress.
The House and Senate each have subcommittees for each of 12 different parts of the budget. Matching budgets for each must pass both chambers and be signed by the President to take effect. (Some or all might be combined into minibus or omnibus appropriations bills.) I can't figure out the deadline--early summer?--but that deadline is regularly missed and they mostly just pretend that October 1 is the real deadline, as if no one needs any prep time in knowing what their budgets are about to be.
If the fiscal year is about to begin and they still haven't passed some or any of those 12 budgets, then to prevent a government shutdown (or partial shutdown), Congress may pass a continuing resolution (CR) to extend funding (usually at the same rates as the previous budget) and give them a new deadline.
What happened this time?
First let's look at what happened last time. Last year's budget was also not ready on time. Continuing resolutions were passed in September, December, and March. Finally the budget was passed in July, using the budget reconciliation process, which meant only a simple majority was required to pass rather than the usual 60% majority. That was last year's budget. No Democrats voted for it.
And now let's look at that March continuing resolution. Some Democrats did vote for that, but the reasons they did that might not apply this time.
1) A shutdown hurts many Americans, especially those who depend on government the most. Many government workers will be expected to work without pay. Federal court cases would be delayed. That's still true.
But this time the continuing resolution is extending a different budget, one that also inflicts harm such as by cutting safety nets (Medicaid being a big one, expected to affect recipients, but also lead to small hospitals closing down, especially in rural areas).
2) DOGE under Elon Musk was slashing funding and programs; they feared that a shutdown would empower them to destroy government services even more quickly by deeming whole swaths of the government nonessential and by furloughing staff. This is still true--Trump is threatening this out loud this time.
Yet last time Trump continued to issue illegal executive orders. DOGE continued slashing funding and programs until slowed by court orders, Elon Musk moving on, and other changes. The White House continued to impound funds. And the political purges increased.
3) They worried that a shutdown would distract from Trump’s failures. He had caused chaos in the markets and damaged the economy, but that would take second place to the crisis of a paralyzed government.
This time most people know that his tariffs are fueling inflation and complicating corporate planning. Most also know the current budget hits the poor the hardest to transfer wealth to the already wealthy.
4) Trump's illegal actions were being stopped in the courts back in March, but a shutdown could cause the courts to close. (Though, unlike executive branch agencies, federal courts can operate on their reserves or carryover funds, including what they obtain from court filing fees, for some weeks. Courts around the country could decide to prioritize cases involving constitutional questions or challenges to the federal government's actions.)
Federal courts are still mostly stopping illegal actions, but it's not clear whether the Supreme Court will.
So what's happening this time?
A continuing resolution doesn't have to continue the current budget just as it is (called a "clean" bill).
The Republican version adds funding for enhanced security for federal officials across all three branches (post Charlie Kirk's murder) and extends several expiring health and veterans programs.
The Democrat version extends ACA/Obamacare subsidies, reverses Medicaid and public broadcasting funding cuts from the last budget, and adds "guard rails" against the president unilaterally defunding programs that Congress has already passed.
It sure seems like there's room for negotiation here, since many Republicans also want to extend ACA subsidies. I suspect they could just literally add that to their own bill and it would pass. Unfortunately, many Republicans see 'negotiating' as a weakness.
Whose fault is it?
It takes two to tango and it takes two to shut down the government. So both parties are at fault. Either party could end the shutdown by completely knuckling under to the demands of the other party.
I've heard Republicans saying that now is not the time for hammering out budget details (and Democrats have said the same in the past). Yet, using the budget reconciliation process to pass a budget means you don't have to consider Democrats in hammering out those details, so this might be their only time to have a say.
How long?
Traditionally, preventing and ending government shutdowns has been a priority. They don't last long. The furloughed and unpaid federal workers eventually get their back pay. And then it takes a lot of time and energy to catch up on all the stuff that didn't get done during the shutdown.
But many are saying this shutdown is different:
1) Trump is threatening to fire people instead of just furloughing them. And he's specifically saying he wants to target Democrats, projects in their cities, and programs that Democrats like, as if Democrats are not also his constituents.
2) Some say neither side wants to negotiate this time. Both want to convince their constituents that it's the other party's fault. The Republicans are just being reasonable, and the Democrats are just fighting for their constituents.
(The administration has altered the out-of-office email messages of furloughed workers to partisan messages on why their office was closed. And when the workers notice and change their messages, the messages get changed back. Yes, this is illegal (see Hatch Act).)
3) It's hard for Democrats to agree to a promise to include something in the future when the Republicans can shut them out from negotiations and when president keeps defunding things he doesn't like.
Yet even though many are saying this time is different, I've heard no one saying the government might stay shut down a crazy long time this time. Like until the midterms. The closest I've found is The Street saying it's possible it will stay shut down until the budget is ready for a vote in November. Ha, next month? So optimistic! I hope they're right. Because our government doesn't feel quite authoritarian enough yet that shutting it down like this indefinitely feels right to me.
Disclaimer: If I ever just skipped all my deadlines, opposed the basic principles that my employer stood for, and saw the use of my most important tools as a weakness, how many seconds would it take for them to fire me? Well, maybe I'd be okay if I also focused on pleasing my bully of a boss rather than my clients.